# OPS 571T Wk 5 – Apply Week 5 Assignment

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OPS 571T Wk 5 – Apply Week 5 Assignment

There are no differences in strategic and tactical forecasting. A forecast is a mathematical projection, and its ultimate purpose should make no difference to the analyst.

True or False

MAD statistics can be used to generate tracking signals.

True or False

In a forecasting model using simple moving average, the shorter the time span used for calculating the moving average, the closer the average follows volatile trends.

True or False

A company has actual unit demand for three consecutive years of 124, 126, and 135. The respective forecasts for the same three years are 120, 120, and 130. Which of the following is the resulting MAD value that can be computed from these data?

Multiple Choice

123

3

1

5

15

Bayesian analysis is the simplest way to choose weights for the weighted moving average forecasting model.

True or False

False

A company has calculated its running sum of forecast errors to be 500, and its mean absolute deviation is exactly 35. Which of the following is the company's tracking signal?

Multiple Choice

Cannot be calculated based on this information

Exactly 35

About 0.07

About 14.3

More than 35

Qualitative forecasting techniques generally take advantage of the knowledge of experts and therefore do not require much judgment.

True or False

False

In general, which forecasting time frame is best to detect general trends?

Multiple Choice

Long-range forecasts

Quick-time forecasts

Rapid-change forecasts

Short-term forecasts

Medium-term forecasts

You are using an exponential smoothing model for forecasting. The running sum of the forecast error statistics (RSFE) are calculated each time a forecast is generated. You find the last RSFE to be 34. Originally, the forecasting model used was selected because of its relatively low MAD of 0.4. To determine when it is time to re-evaluate the usefulness of the exponential smoothing model, you compute tracking signals. Which of the following is the resulting tracking signal?

Multiple Choice

60

8

85

In time series data depicting demand, which of the following is not considered a component of demand variation?

Multiple Choice

Trend

Autocorrelation

Variance

Seasonal

Cyclical

A central premise of exponential smoothing is that more recent data are less indicative of the future than data from the distant past.

True or False

False

Which of the following forecasting methodologies is considered a qualitative forecasting technique?

Multiple Choice

Simple moving average

Multiple regression

Market research

Exponential smoothing

Linear regression

Which of the following is a major factor that distinguishes service design and development from manufacturing design and development?

Multiple Choice

The service package is the major output of the development process.

The service process and service product can be developed independently.

Capacity decisions are much more critical in manufacturing operations.

Manufacturing is far more capital intensive than services.

The service package has the same legal protection available to manufactured goods.

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