# MAT 540 Midterm Exam 1

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**MAT 540 Midterm Exam**

1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

2. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

3. A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches 5. Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

6. A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated

7. Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

8. Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

9. Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

10. In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

11. The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

12. Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

13. Consider the following frequency of demand: If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

14. A seed value is a(n) 15. Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.

16. __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

17. Consider the following graph of sales. Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

18. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

19. Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

20. __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand

21. In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

22. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:

23. __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

24. __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

25. An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

26. The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

27. An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.

28. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

29. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).

30. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).

31. A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value?

32. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: 33. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

34. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

35. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008. Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

36. Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008. Calculate the correlation coefficient. Use four significant digits after the decimal.

37. This is the data from the last 4 weeks: Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

38. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data

39. Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings. What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

40. Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

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