Cycles in the DJIA by Walter Bressert
Walter Bressert Inc.
Cycles in the DJIA and on Gold mta presentation
Walter, who is credited with bringing cycles into the futures markets, became interested in cycles in the late 1960s. He studied everything available at the time, including volumes of information published by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, and Jim Hurst's classic book on cycles, "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing". He also attended several of Jim's workshops. Walter was a trader, and in applying the concepts from Hurst's book and workshops, and the Foundation, he realized that something was missing. There was plenty of theory on how to use cycles, but no quantification, or structure, that would allow him to trade the markets cyclically with confidence.
He researched the historical performance of the markets, focusing on quantifying the cycles and combining cycles with price performance, including Fibonnaci relationships of time and price. He studied the works of Edwards and Magee, W.D. Gann, Gartley and R.N. Elliott, blending the timing of cycles with the best of the works of others who had studied the market in-depth. It was at this time Walter began using a combination of oscillators and Timing Bands, which compensates for the tendency of cycles to contract and extend. The result of his extensive research was the Bressert Method of Cycle Analysis. Much of the terminology used by cycle analysts today originates with the terminology Walter used to describe cyclic activity for specific cycles that he isolated over 25 years ago. This method, greatly improved by the addition of Oscillator/Cycle Combinations, is still traded today by many who learned it in the 70s and 80s.
In 1974, he began publishing the HAL Commodity Cycles newsletter to make this information available to other traders. Focusing on the futures markets, HAL quickly grew to become one of the largest and most popular newsletters in the business. As Futures magazine stated - "He gets the readership he deserves because he is right so often".
In 1976, at the request of his subscribers, he began teaching workshops on trading cycles using the Bressert Method. Over the years he has taught thousands of commodity traders, brokers and money managers in the U.S., Europe and Asia how to use cycles to improve their timing.
Walter had been working with oscillators for many years before he joined with Tim Slater in 1979 to build CompuTrac, the first computerized market analysis program available to the public.
After publishing HAL Commodity Cycles for 12 years, of which 10 of the 12 years were profitable, he retired in 1985. In 1990, he saw the need for a book on combining oscillators and cycles, and published "The Power of Oscillator/Cycle Combinations" in 1991. This book is now outdated with the advent of computerized analysis.
From 1991 through 1995, he published the CycleWatch newsletter, which forecast time and price moves weeks and months into the future in the S&P Index, Bonds, Precious Metals, Currencies and the Agricultural markets. CycleWatch was available as a daily fax-on-demand, and via DBC Signal, FutureLink and DTN. Walter's trading recommendations were also featured on the Futures magazine AllStar Advisor's Hotline.
In 1994, Walter developed award-winning software that over the years has evolved into his current software ProfitTrader. Based on his timing methodology, ProfitTrader identifies trend and trend reversals, plus generates mechanical BUY/SELL signals. Today, as editor and publisher of the WB Intraday Review & Forecaster and WB Trades OnLine, he provides daily commentary and trade recommendations on the S&P 500. His recommendations and forecasts are instructional so traders can learn the "how and why" to make their own trading decisions.
The Timing Bands he built for the markets in the early 70s are still valid and much improved. The addition of oscillators and his techniques to enhance oscillator performance greatly improve the ability of anyone - beginner or expert - to trade tops and bottoms of cycles as they are occurring . The real key to trading with cycles is to first identify trend direction, then buy bottoms if the trend is up, and sell tops if the trend is down. The interaction of cycles within cycles shows specific patterns that help identify trend reversals as they are occurring, and in iday trading it is these trend reversals that are often followed by the big intraday moves.
Walter was a director and president of the non-profit Foundation for the Study of Cycles. He has lectured internationally for more than twenty years and written articles for the Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Futures magazine and the "Commodity Research Bureau Yearbook". He was a contributing editor to the Financial News Network and has appeared on CNBC from time-to-time as a guest speaker.